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After the listing on the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM), there have been two bull markets in total.

The first bull market started at the end of 2012 and ended in mid-2015, lasting for 31 months.

The GEM index soared from 585 points to 4,037 points, with the maximum increase in the period reaching 590%.

The first stock to rise sharply on the GEM was LeEco (LeTV).

Looking at the eventual delisting of LeEco, the first bull market on the GEM was essentially a bubble in the sector.

The second bull market began in early 2019 and ended in late 2021, also lasting for 31 months.

The GEM index soared from 1,184 points to 3,576 points, with the maximum increase in the period reaching 202%.

The first stock to rise sharply on the GEM was CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited).

A batch of strong stocks also emerged, such as Aier Eye Hospital, Mindray Medical, Sungrow Power Supply, Zhifei Biological, and EVE Energy.

These major strong stocks have all experienced varying degrees of pullback after the end of the bull market on the GEM.In both bull markets, there was one company that experienced a significant increase, which is East Money.

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In the past two years, although the ChiNext board has been in the process of adjustment, there have not been a lack of strong stocks.

The well-known AI trio, Yi Zhongtian, Xin Yisheng, Zhongji Xu Chuang, and Tianfu Communication, all come from the ChiNext board.

This indicates that the ChiNext board itself has indeed produced a large number of high-quality companies.

This is in line with the market's original intention and positioning, with a large number of high-quality "startup" companies emerging.

How many dividends from the times have the bull markets of the ChiNext board hit?

LeTV and East Money are actually the dividends of the Internet.

Aier Eye Hospital, Mindray Medical, and Zhifei Biological are the dividends of the development of the medical industry.

CATL, Sungrow Power Supply, and EVE Energy are the dividends of the new energy industry.

Xin Yisheng, Zhongji Xu Chuang, and Tianfu Communication are the dividends of the AI era.Great listed companies originate from the dividends of the era, and this is absolutely true. These enterprises are also the foundation for the bull market of the GEM board round after round.

So, where is the third bull market of the GEM board, and what kind of high-quality enterprises will emerge?

Any bull market requires several foundations, and the GEM board is no exception.

The first is an extremely low valuation.

At the end of 2012, the price-to-earnings ratio of the GEM board was 26 times, and at the end of 2018, it was 31 times.

At the beginning of 2024, the lowest price-to-earnings ratio of the GEM board was also times.

From the perspective of valuation, 26 times is a relatively low price-to-earnings ratio.

But whether it is an extremely low price-to-earnings ratio is still uncertain, but at least it has the foundation for a bull market.

Because only a low price-to-earnings ratio can attract capital to enter the market.

(Note: The text seems to have some missing information, specifically the number after "31 times" and the word "times" at the end of the sentence about the 2024 price-to-earnings ratio. Please provide the missing information for a more accurate translation.)Moreover, the current capital speculation in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) will have a lower ceiling than before, so it will definitely require a lower starting valuation.

Secondly, there must be a clear main line.

Speculation in the GEM also requires a main line.

Take the most recent bull market in the GEM as an example, the combination of pharmaceuticals and new energy was the main line for the rise of the GEM.

To initiate a bull market, there must be a main line; without it, the bull market cannot be launched.

To put it bluntly, a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 20 times, after a correction, can at most reach more than 30 times, and then there is no motivation for speculation.

So starting from a low point, there is a 50% space, and that's it.

And the definition of a bull market is definitely not as simple as a 50% increase; the difficulty of capital operation within a 50% space is actually quite large.

Thirdly, there must be a batch of high-quality stocks.

One or two high-quality listed companies cannot drive a sector; a batch is necessary.And in this batch, a portion of the weight of the company is necessary.

Large market value leaders are very necessary for the drive of the entire sector.

Nowadays, a large part of the weight of the GEM (Growth Enterprise Market) has been "hijacked" by companies like CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited).

And funds prefer to speculate on the new rather than the old, which means that new high-quality companies must emerge.

These companies, in addition to the concept, must also have sufficient performance growth, such as the CPO "giant" like Yizhongtian.

This point may be the key to the bull market of the GEM, because there is no sign of it at present.

Finally, let's talk about the time cycle and the characteristics of the bull market start.

From a cyclical perspective, the time between the previous two peaks of the GEM is 6 years.

If calculated according to this cycle, the next peak of the GEM bull market will appear in the middle of 2027.Then, with three years left until the present year 2024, it is actually a very long period.

If we look at the bottom structure, although the ChiNext currently has a low point of 1482, the bottom has not yet been confirmed.

The bottom of the first major bull market was 612 + 585, a double bottom.

The bottom of the second major bull market was 1184 + 1201, a double bottom.

A single-foot-supported bottom is not non-existent, but the confirmation cycle is also very long, and it will not be achieved overnight.

If combined with the ChiNext market, each time it rises for just over 30 months, that is, two and a half years.

Then the starting point of the next ChiNext bull market should be at the beginning of 2025.

Of course, this is just a preliminary time estimate, which may be affected by different factors, and it is normal to be a few months apart.

But looking at the time when the 1482 point appeared, it should not be confirmed as the starting point of the bull market, because the time does not match, and the cycle does not match.

There is also an important feature of the start of a bull market, which is a rapid pull-up, and the emergence of a scramble for shares.The several bull markets of the ChiNext board, the first round of each market trend is a rapid bottom grabbing market, not a leisurely oscillating market.

Looking at the overall market performance of the ChiNext board from February to June, there is no sign of the start of a bull market.

Therefore, at the current juncture, it is a bit early to talk about the bull market of the ChiNext board, and there is still a relatively long time cycle.

Finally, the potential height of the third bull market that everyone is concerned about.

Whether it is the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, or the ChiNext Index, the total increase of each bull market is actually decreasing.

There are two main reasons for this situation.

The first reason is that the market value is getting bigger and bigger.

The expansion of the plate brings about an increase in market value, which leads to an increase in overall stability.

The current market value of the ChiNext board, to double again, or even 2 times, 3 times, is very difficult.

The volume is large, the required funds are more, and the performance requirements for listed companies are also higher.From this perspective, if 1500 points is the starting point of the ChiNext bull market, it will be quite challenging to rise to 3000 points.

However, returning to the range of 2500-2800 and increasing by 60-80% is still very likely, and there is still room for growth.

The second reason is that capital has become more rational.

In the previous rounds of the ChiNext bull market, bubbles were directly inflated, and the price-to-earnings ratios were very high.

The first round was more than 130 times, and the second round was also more than 60 times.

The reasonable price-to-earnings ratio for ChiNext should fluctuate between 20-40 times.

If the market reaches a consensus on valuation, then the space for the ChiNext bull market will naturally be suppressed.

Rational capital will sell off at high prices, and the capital that takes over is also unwilling to take over at high positions.

ChiNext will gradually become similar to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, that is, reducing volatility will become the main direction.

No matter how far the ChiNext bull market can go in the end, there will be a cyclical market, just wait for the flowers to bloom.