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Recently, the term "early stage of a bull market" has been used very frequently.

Almost everyone is shouting that the bull market is coming, and then they will basically add a sentence, saying that the current stage is the early stage of a bull market.

How is the early stage of a bull market defined, and does it make money in the early stage of a bull market?

Let's first look at the timeline of the early stage of a bull market, taking three bull markets as an example.

The first round, the 2006-2007 bull market.

The low point, 998, the time, June 6, 2005.

The second low point, 1004, the time, July 12, 2015.

The real starting point of the bull market, March 9, 2006, the index point is 1238.

The second round, the 2014-2015 bull market.

The low point, 1849, the time, June 25, 2013.Translate the following passage into English:

The secondary low point, 1949, date, December 4, 2012.

The true starting point of the bull market, July 22, 2014, index point 2049.

The third round, the bull market of 2020-2021.

Low point, 2440, date, January 4, 2019.

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Secondary low point, 2449, date, October 19, 2018.

The true starting point of the bull market, June 1, 2020, index point 2871.

There are several commonalities when a bull market starts.

Firstly, a double low point appears, which can be close or far, can be higher before and lower after, or lower before and higher after.

A bull market generally has two legs; there is no situation where it walks on one leg.

Before the bull market starts, the validity of the bottom will be repeatedly confirmed, so it is normal to have two or even multiple low points.At the beginning of a bull market, it is a process of collecting bottom chips.

During the mid-stage of a bull market, it is the real meaning of a general rise and the main lift.

Here is a point to emphasize, that is, a bull market must be a general rise, not a structured one.

However, some sectors may have a relatively limited range of increase, and some are the main lines, so the increase will be more.

If you look at the early stage of a bull market according to the above standards, then the current distance from the real bull market is still very far.

From the perspective of the trend and technical surface, there are several necessary factors.

1. Only one of the two feet of the bull market is seen.

2635 is undoubtedly a low point, so where is the next low point?

Some people say 2724, that distance is too close, and does not meet the requirements of the next low point.

Two low points should be at least more than 2 months apart, which is effective.So, there must be another low point, within a 10% fluctuation range of 2635, which means it will not exceed 2900 points.

Only after this low point appears, then talking about the establishment of the bull market double bottom is relatively reasonable.

2. The cycle of bottom oscillation has not yet arrived.

Even if the market has reached a low point and entered the bull market countdown, the time cycle of this countdown is not short.

Most of the bull markets truly start more than a year after the appearance of the bottom.

Even if 2635 is a low point, the market cycle has not yet arrived.

The reason for such a cycle issue is that a bull market needs to accumulate chips at the bottom.

Without enough bottom chips, there will be no funds actively raising the market to raise the stock price.

The game of chips must be entered by funds, and only after the layout is completed, there will be a real market.

A bull market is nothing more than a process where a group of large funds have copied the bottom, in order to make money and raise and sell at a high price.3. A comprehensive market rally has not occurred at all.

Apart from the rapid and widespread rise in the market during the more than ten trading days following 2635.

For almost all the time, the market has not seen a general rise, but occasionally gives a sweet treat.

Most of the time, it's a chicken ribs market with 1000-2000 companies rising and 3000-4000 companies falling.

In the early stage of a bull market, it should be a valuation lowland, theoretically, capital should be everything.

Companies with good fundamentals will be more favored by capital, but those with average fundamentals, because of the low valuation, will also be favored by capital.

This should be a question of how much to rise, not a question of rising in the east and falling in the west.

To put it bluntly, it should not be a process of robbing Peter to pay Paul, but a situation where incremental capital enters the market.

Therefore, based on the various manifestations of the current market, this place is definitely not a bull market.

Simply defining the starting point of a bull market with the low point seems reasonable, but in fact, it does not have much value.Because a bull market should be about making money, not about repeatedly tossing and turning in the market and losing money in the process.

If there might be darkness before dawn, then before a bull market, preserving the principal and not being cut down by the tail of a bear market is the top priority.

Finding the bottom and building the bottom are two different things.

In a bear market, what the market does is to find the bottom, while in the early stages of a bull market, what the market does is to build the bottom.

The process of finding the bottom is definitely completely different from the process of building the bottom.

Nowadays, the market is already in the process of building the bottom, so what will happen during the bottom building?

First, the bottom area is often volatile.

The reason for the volatility is to acquire the bottom shares.If capital unilaterally buys and buys, there will be no structure at the bottom, and it will be very flat and slowly rise.

This situation only appears after a sharp drop, such as the 1664 in 2008, which is like this.

In most cases, capital will repeatedly release good and bad news at the bottom, making the bottom appear to be a pattern of oscillation.

It gives people a feeling that the bull market is coming, and it seems that the bear market has not left.

Only repeated oscillations can consume the floating chips at the bottom and complete the collection of chips.

Second, capital gathers together, and value is revealed.

The early stage of the bull market is a group of situations, but the direction of each group is not the same.

The previous group was mainly based on small and medium-sized market value stocks, and each round was the first to group in the GEM.

Now, the group is the Shanghai Composite Index, the CSI 300, and the Shanghai 50 Index.

Which direction first appears to be a low-lying area, and capital will gather towards that place.The reason why the ChiNext board is relatively weak this round, and the Science and Technology Innovation board is very weak, is also related to the new regulations for small and medium-sized market value stocks at present.

The market is intentionally guiding funds to form a "value" cluster, to clear out the trash in the market.

It can only be said that different eras require compliance with different styles.

Third, the release of the mine point, light load to go.

The last point, in fact, is very important, is to release the market mine.

The bottoming process must be thoroughly completed, so it is necessary to keep exploding mines, to eliminate all potential mines.

Because there is a need to start a big bull market later, some hidden mines will affect the bull market.

Before the start of the big bull market, the market will be very strict in de-mining, especially the performance of the big mines, even if some can be covered at the moment, will try to break through.

Because the market is ultimately going to go light, it can't keep exploding mines during the rise.

During the bottoming process, occasionally inducing some mines can also strike the market sentiment, help the bottom chips to clear out, play the role of washing the plate.The night before dawn is very long. Even if you have already stepped out with one foot, knowing that it is the last dawn, it is still very long.

Many people will go through repeated twists and turns at this stage, either eroding their confidence or losing their principal.

This stage requires a certain amount of time and patience.