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Many friends are curious about why we can predict the approximate time of building a top, as well as the general range of the top.

What are the characteristics of the main force building a top, and how should retail investors judge it?

In fact, the essence of everything in the world is inseparable from the law of cycles.

That is to say, a certain market trend has a certain cyclical law, from the beginning to the end, the operation of capital must conform to the cyclical law.

In theory, an independent market manipulator can control a stock and "draw lines" at will.

For several months, or even several years, it is completely possible.

But this is only in theory, because the longer the operation, the less it conforms to the law of human nature, and the more likely it is to lose money.

If it is not accompanied by some real good news, many manipulators find it difficult to smoothly sell out after driving up the stock price.

Therefore, the main force needs to build a top in a certain period of time.

The reason for building a top is that there is no follow-up plate.Whenever there is a trend-following order, the main force will prioritize the lift, because there is no cost to lifting.

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During the lift, many chips will profit and settle, but the existence of trend-following orders can offset this part of the chips.

That is, the actual cost of lifting is not generated, and it is the funds that chase the rise that bear the cost.

The trend-following order will gradually weaken because of the fear of heights.

When the overall market environment deteriorates, or when the price reaches a certain position, the fear of heights will spread.

Once the funds are unwilling to take over at a high position, the main force can only be forced to build a top, because it cannot continue to operate.

The purpose of building a top is to ensure the safety of profits.

The main force to build a top is actually "passive", if there is enough trend-following order, then the top is definitely the higher the better.

Because the higher the top, the more expensive the chip price, the more the main force earns.

But if there is no trend-following order, the main force needs to take the high position by itself, and then forcibly lure more, if the uncertainty is very strong, the main force is definitely unwilling.The original low-suction chips obtained had a very low cost. Once they take more positions at a high level, the cost of the chips suddenly goes up.

At this time, the main force's action must first ensure the safety of profits, and the main thing is to sell the chips.

Whether it's more or less, making a profit is the most important thing.

The most important thing in the stock market is not the top and bottom.

It's the emotion and chips, these two things form a cycle.

Have you ever thought carefully about why the index needs to fall to 2635, not to 2800, not to 2700, not to 2600, or even 2500.

It's because of the need for bottom chips, and the overflow of chips is on the one hand the price, and on the other hand, it's the emotion.

The end of a cycle is a change of hands of chips and also a release of emotion.

Similarly, why did 3174 build the top, not 3200, not 3300, not 3400?The trend-following orders driven by emotions can only support the market to this position; without trend-followers, it means that the chips are left without a taker.

At this point, emotions need to be released once again.

Behind market sentiment and chips, there are actually only two words: one is called "luring to sell," and the other is called "luring to buy."

I want you to sell your chips to me, that is luring to sell.

I want to sell my chips to you, that is luring to buy.

In essence, the low position is always luring to sell, and the high position is always luring to buy; this will never change.

Not grabbing chips below 2800 and waiting to take over at 3100, at least at the main force level, is something that cannot be done.

The main force is the most astute capital in the market; they maintain absolute rationality and will never do the foolish thing of buying high and selling low.

However, in comparison, retail investors are different.

They believe what they see; a rise is good, even if it's at a high position, and a fall is bad because it might go even lower.Thus, the bottom rose, and retail investors believed that a bull market was coming. Once adjusted, they immediately changed their minds like a weathercock, thinking that the bear market had not yet passed.

This natural human "expression" will never change, and it has always been so.

So the key to building a top is actually to see the bullish retail investors who have exhausted their ammunition. The main force must choose to build a top when they have to take over at a high position after raising the price.

In a stock market with a fixed amount of capital, the funds are relatively limited.

Bullish funds will hold more chips on the way up, and they are actually unable to help except for locking the warehouse.

In the process of pushing up the stock price, it is necessary for funds to buy chips at a high position, which will obviously increase the cost of the main force.

The behavior of the vast majority of the main force is the same, pulling up while retreating, creating the appearance of a breakthrough and rising, attracting followers and then giving them the chips.

This is a typical temptation to buy more.

Once the temptation to buy more starts, it will be repeatedly lifted and shipped out.

Because the exhaustion of the followers naturally forms a top area.The trend-following orders in this area gradually realized that the situation was not good and turned into trapped orders, and the top was formed accordingly.

The top is a structure interwoven with human nature and emotions, and there is no precise point in fact.

Once a certain emotion appears and the turnover of chips is in place, the top naturally forms.

So why is there a time cycle?

For example, an upward movement at the daily line level, at least 7-14 trading days, an upward movement at the weekly line level, at least 8-10 weeks.

Only after the cycle is reached, will the top be built.

In fact, this is also very easy to explain, the cycle comes from two aspects.

First, it is the cycle of chip operation.

The rise at the daily line level is brought by short-term funds speculating on hot spots.Then, the original intention of this part of the funds is actually short-term speculation.

There are also sizes of hot spots, smaller hot spots can generally be speculated in 5-7 trading days, and longer ones are about 8-14 trading days.

The speculation of larger hot spots often lasts for 2-3 months, which is no longer a daily line level of the market, but has become a weekly line level.

The operation of chips has a cycle, and short-term funds are mostly built on the spot, with high efficiency.

And the construction of medium and long-term funds, at least 1-2 months in advance.

When it comes to selling, the game of short-term funds, the opponents are all short-term, 2-3 trading days, high volume and then volume reduction, the market is almost over.

The entry and exit of medium and long-term funds are all in batches, and the cycle will naturally be longer.

So, after determining the level of the market, you can roughly calculate the cycle of the market is about how long.

Second, it is the cycle of emotional change.

Changing emotions requires a cycle, that is, time.Although a single sunny day can change one's outlook, truly altering one's perspective on the market must go through a phase.

For instance, at the beginning of January when the market plummeted, many people would be very bearish, believing that the bear market was far from over.

Then, as the market began to recover, it would take time for these people to believe that the bear market had ended and that a bull market was coming.

When the market repeatedly adjusted without breaking through 3000, many people would think that the market would no longer break through 3000.

This is actually a process of repairing emotions over time, making them forget the fear of January.

Looking back, were those bearish factors and problems really resolved?

Cycles are like our emotions, rising and falling, with peaks and troughs, all just a phase of the cycle.

The main force also acts according to emotions, because they need to follow emotions to get chips.

Sometimes, they will use some special means, such as short essays, to fan the flames and cause emotional fluctuations, which are all normal.

When you can control your emotions well and look at the market objectively and rationally, you will naturally understand many cyclical laws.