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Some say that my recent views are rather pessimistic.

In fact, it's not that the views are pessimistic; on the contrary, I remain extremely optimistic.

Most people are discussing whether this year is the starting point of a bull market and whether the stock market will continue to rise.

So, when the market goes against the grain, it will appear somewhat uneasy, starting to waver and doubt.

And I believe that this year is precisely the crucial link for the bull market to start, the process of accumulating positions at the bottom.

When you know what the market is going to do, and the expectations are clear, then you will naturally maintain optimism.

What is the key to building a bottom?

Many people would immediately say it's the low point, it's the valuation, it's the policy.

These answers are all correct, but none of them are the real core.

The key to building a bottom lies in having sufficiently cheap chips.There is another theory that perhaps many have heard more about, known as "blood-stained chips."

In the capital market, the purpose of suppressing stock prices is not to let the market value evaporate, but to grab the blood-stained chips at the bottom.

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So, may I ask, have the blood-stained chips come out?

The market did get a portion of the blood-stained chips at the end of January and the beginning of February this year.

The explosion of snowballs, the explosion of quantization, the explosion of financing leverage, and the bottom chips brought by various explosions.

But after taking this part of the chips, the market only took 8 trading days to pull back to 3,000 points.

Grabbing the bottom chips and immediately lifting them is the market's standard action to not give cheap chips to others.

This action was done very well and very quickly, but this action should not have appeared in this position.

Under normal circumstances, this is a way to quickly lift after washing the plate.

Most of them appear in the middle of a bull market, that is, the adjustment after the first stage of the rise, and the quick lift after the plate is washed.Here is the translation of the provided text into English:

This is a process of building a base, not a process of shaking off during an upward trend.

So, there will be a big problem here, the collection of bottom chips is not enough in time.

The market did not have enough time to fully eat the chips below 2800.

But because the last time the chips were eaten too ugly, so first wiped the mouth, pretending to have finished eating.

This means that the market is still inevitable, there must be a long process of absorbing chips.

Before the real bull market, it will not give up if it doesn't have enough chips.

There are actually two ways to get chips.

There is no absorption of chips in the upward trend.

Because once the market starts the real upward trend, it means that the bottom chips have been firmly held in the hands of the main force.

Please note that the translation is provided with the assumption that the text is related to stock market or investment context, as the terms like "chips" and "absorbing chips" are often used in this context. If the original text is from a different context, the translation might need to be adjusted accordingly.In an upward trend, retail investors are not willing to easily let go of their shares, let alone the main force.

It seems as if the trading volume is very large and funds are continuously entering the market, but in fact, there has already been a hidden current.

Therefore, the real way to hold shares and the stage of holding shares are only the following two.

The first type is the continuous washing and collecting of chips in the shock.

The market has not been without a shock in the bottom building, in fact, most of the bottoms have a shock process.

On the contrary, the V-shaped bottom is almost non-existent.

In 2005, the bottom shock lasted for 9 months, in 2008, it lasted for 5 months, in 2013, it lasted for 24 months before and after the bottom, and in 2018, it lasted for 4 months.

Defining an area at the bottom and then repeatedly shocking is a main way of collecting chips.

Of course, there will also be a distinction between strong and weak in the shock, that is, some sectors, some indexes will be strong, and some indexes will be weaker.

Take the bottom of 2012-2013, a cycle of about 2 years, the ChiNext board started first, and the overall market is still in the bottom shock.Because the bottom chips of the ChiNext board have been completely collected, while those of the Shanghai Composite Index have not yet.

The bottoming in 2024 seems to be completely different.

The bottom chips of blue-chip stocks have been absorbed, so the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and SSE 50, etc., show a stronger trend.

In other directions, most are still searching for the bottom in the fluctuation, and the cleaning of the chips is far from being in place.

The second type is the continuous absorption of chips in the downtrend.

Most of the chips are not obtained in the rise, but slowly bought during the fall.

The bottom is even if it fluctuates, the chips are relatively limited.

Because at the bottom, only a small part is willing to cut the meat.

Some large funds have already started to layout during the fall.

Why did the market rise from 2635 to 3000 points in just eight trading days?It is precisely because a portion of the capital has already fully absorbed the bottom chips that the market needs to be pulled up, not releasing the chips to others.

However, if the capital is not fully absorbed, or if it wants to acquire cheaper chips, it will continue to suppress the market.

After all, the lower the cost of the chips, the more money the capital can earn in the future.

So, if the main force wants the chips, it will definitely suppress the price, rather than lifting the stock price to make money for retail investors.

The process of taking the chips is destined to be bloody, rather than peaceful.

The biggest problem in the current market is that the decline is very moderate, and the points are still high.

The bottom chips are in the bottom area, not halfway up a mountain.

Above 3100 points, it has been proven countless times that it is a halfway point.

During an uptrend, 3100 is a threshold, and during a downtrend, 3100 is also a threshold.There's no talk of bottom chips in this position.

The market has intentionally slowed down the decline, on one hand, because there are indeed people who want the chips, and on the other hand, it is for the sake of stability.

But this approach will inevitably lead to a trade-off between space and time, turning into a trade-off between time and space.

In other words, it has prolonged the process of building a bottom.

The first half of 2024 passed in a blink of an eye.

Looking back carefully, the market spent only a little over a month below 3000 points, and most of the time it hovered between 3000 and 3100.

It's no wonder that there is no additional capital in the market, this position is just too awkward.

More importantly, where is the bottom of small-cap stocks, how the capital is building the bottom, and what stage the process is at, there is still no conclusion.

Small-cap stocks, micro-cap stocks, seem to have no bottom.

Because there is no bottom in performance, the stock price naturally has no bottom either.The smallest structure at the bottom is a double bottom, which certainly is not a single needle bottom.

Even if 2635 is the bottom of a bull market, where is the second bottom?

In the process of looking for the market's second bottom, it must be a long process.

Moreover, the market also needs to coordinate the four major indices to complete the bottoming of each index and sector.

Because of the structured market, the coordination of this market is actually very poor this time, with sectors fighting on their own.

From independence to unity, this process must be very long.

For a period of time, he is strong and I am weak, and for another period of time, I am weak and he is strong.

If retail investors follow the rotation like a fan to do this bottoming market, they will suffer huge losses in the rotation.

Recognize the situation, seize the opportunity, do a good job in the market, and wait for the arrival of the bull market.