Can short lines really be done every day?
There is a saying in the market that short-term trading can be done every day, and there are opportunities to make money every day.
In fact, this statement is quite ignorant and foolish. It seems right on the surface, but it is actually completely wrong.
If it were really possible to make money by doing short-term trading every day, the market would not be as it is now.
The market should be more active every day, whether it is rising or falling, and it should maintain a higher volume.
Because large funds can play some tickets together every day, and speculative capital can also go to play the limit every day. Everyone can trade every day like quantization, and speculate on hot spots every day.
The actual situation is that some days, short-term funds are resting and not doing the market.
When the market turnover drops from 1.3 trillion to 700 billion, at least 600 billion funds are resting.
Among these funds, there are medium and long-term funds, major main funds, but there are also quite a few short-term funds.
As long as the market's money-making effect is not good, these funds are mainly resting and will not be busy working every day.
What kind of market can be done every day is just a seemingly correct lie.On certain "special" days, short-term trading is not feasible because the probability of making money is extremely low, and the risk of losing money is extremely high.
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The first type is in a market with a decline of over 4000.
If you find that in a market, the proportion of declines to advances is out of balance, it is not suitable for short-term trading.
Short-term speculation is about sentiment, and a decline of over 4000 means that the market sentiment is relatively poor.
Doing short-term trading at this time is no different from picking chestnuts out of the fire.
If it reaches a decline of over 5000, the sentiment will be even worse, and the fewer the proportion of advances, the more short-term funds will only go out and not come in.
Some people will say that the market has fallen a lot, which is just right for buying low and getting on the train.
This statement seems to be correct, but in such a market, once a chain reaction is formed, if the same situation occurs every day for a period, buying low is just a continuous trap.
At any time when the market sentiment is poor, try to control your hands and do not participate in trading.The transformation of emotions, or rather, their alleviation, requires a process. It is more prudent to look for opportunities after the emotions have been alleviated.
The second scenario is in a market with extreme volume contraction.
Volume contraction indicates that there is less capital involved.
If the market experiences volume contraction, whether it is a slow decline, a small rise, or a horizontal trend, there will be few opportunities.
With less capital involved, the profit-making effect will definitely not be good.
Even if the main force wants to act, it will be shelved due to the lack of capital to take over.
Trading volume, especially the volume of the index, is the least deceptive. It very realistically reflects the situation and changes of the entire market.
Volume expansion represents the activity of trading. Only with volume can there be price.
The same applies to individual stocks. If they can continue to expand in volume or maintain a high level of trading volume, there will definitely be more opportunities.
If a stock has been contracting in volume for a long time, the probability of making money by participating in short-term trading is extremely low, or at most, you can only make a little money.The essence of volume is the amount of short-term capital participation, which must be thoroughly understood.
The third type is in a market where the number of limit-down stocks exceeds the number of limit-up stocks.
If the entire market has a large number of limit-down stocks and a relatively small number of limit-up stocks, it is also a rather poor market.
This market environment implies that there is capital retreating without regard to cost.
Short-term trading focuses on the accumulation of capital, which generates stock premiums.
When the number of stocks that can generate premiums decreases, while the number of discounted stocks increases, the market becomes unmanageable.
A lot of capital, driven by the psychology of risk prevention, will also do the same high-selling, and the capital that dares to hit the board will become less and less.
Chasing highs is prone to board explosions, and chasing falls may encounter limit-down, at this time, short-term trading has changed from a pie to a trap.
Excluding ST stocks, if a market occurs where the number of limit-down exceeds the number of limit-up, it is generally a bear market, and it is a market with bad sentiment. The advice is to rest and recuperate.
Most short-term speculative capital, in this market environment, is mainly to wait and see.The fourth type, a market without a core hot spot.
If this market lacks a hot spot, then there will be no systematic speculation, and the difficulty of short-term trading will be very high.
Even if there are 20-30 stocks hitting the daily limit, but they come from different industry sectors, then finding these stocks becomes very troublesome.
Moreover, if this situation occurs, it means that the speculative funds are also very chaotic, fighting on their own.
At this time, it is naturally very difficult for retail investors to catch stocks that can rise sharply in the short term.
The real short-term market is the speculation of popular stocks, but also the speculation of popular sectors.
The reason why funds dare to speculate in the short term is that the market is relatively hot, and funds are directed in one direction, making this direction very safe.
The fifth type, a market with a large area of catch-up declines.
If the market experiences a large area of catch-up declines, that is, high-priced stocks falling, the sentiment is also quite bad.
A large number of A-killing in the stocks hitting the daily limit means that strong stocks are retreating.Many people might think that at this stage, one could try to catch a rebound from oversold conditions, doing the opposite of what is expected.
If one is truly adept at catching such opportunities, there indeed is a chance, but most retail investors do not believe in the possibility when the market is falling; they only trust in what they see when it rises, and only trust in stocks that are hitting the upper limit. This can be very problematic.
In a market with widespread catch-up declines, chasing gains leads to losses one after another.
At such times, for most retail investors who are not proficient in technical analysis, it is advised to keep a respectful distance.
Short-term trading cannot kill emotions; on the contrary, it requires nurturing emotions and building up to an emotional climax.
Short-term trading is actually very scholarly.
If one could really engage in short-term trading every day and make money every day, then those short-term trading experts could make dozens or even hundreds of times their money in a year.
After 2-3 years of such a market, they could have made thousands or even tens of thousands of times their initial investment.
But the reality is, there has never been such an expert.The reason is that when the market conditions are poor, there are fewer investment options to choose from.
As the scale of funds increases, the difficulty of stock selection and trading increases exponentially.
Some funds, after growing in scale, start to engage in value investing, not because value investing is more profitable, but because the situation is forced, and short-term trading is too difficult.
When retail investors accumulate capital, moderate short-term trading is definitely necessary.
Those who encourage you to invest in the long term from the start are basically just talking nonsense, because there is no guarantee of making money, and it also wastes time and good market conditions.
But as you gradually understand this market, you will naturally extend the trading cycle.
Because extending the cycle to a certain length can more effectively increase the probability of making money.
With the accumulation of experience, you will understand what to do and what not to do, and you will also understand why you can't stand under a dangerous wall.
Short-term trading, if played well, is a good medicine, but if not, it can be poison.
Most retail investors lose money by playing short-term, and there is no way to avoid this.Remember the truth: short-term trading tends to be a game of chance, where the main players and retail investors compete. In terms of the outcome, it is destined that retail investors will be the losers.
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