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The A-share market is currently undergoing a transformation, a transformation of survival of the fittest.

This can be seen from the large number of individual stocks joining the vast army of ST stocks.

The market is changing.

If 2016 was the year that opened up the blue-chip stocks, and 2020 was the spring of the big white horses, then 2024 will be the start of value investment.

The surge in blue-chip stocks in 2016 was based on the repair of the 2015 adjustment.

Because the valuation of small-cap stocks was artificially high, the essence of blue-chip stocks was more obvious.

Therefore, from 2016 to 2017, traditional blue-chip stocks ushered in the spring.

The big white horse market in 2020 was a speculation on "core assets" and "super brands".

A batch of well-known listed companies have seen a significant increase in this wave.

Compared with the previous speculation of blue-chip stocks, the intensity of this round of speculation is very large, far beyond expectations.Many white-horse stocks have seen gains exceeding ten times over the three years from 2019 to 2021.

In 2024, will there be significant speculation space in the market guided by value investment?

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To answer this question, it mainly involves three aspects.

One is the specific direction of speculation, another is the logic supporting the speculation, and the third is where the speculative funds come from, and finally, how much speculation space there is.

1. Direction of speculation.

Whether it's blue-chip stocks, white-horse stocks, or value investment, these directions of speculation are all based on the good performance of listed companies.

However, the definition of good performance is different.

In the past two years, the performance of banks has been good, with steady gains, and they belong to traditional blue-chip stocks.

But the good performance of banks is only based on stable performance, not rapid growth in performance.The hype around big white horses is different from that of traditional blue-chip stocks.

The story they tell is about the continuous growth of high-growth sectors, such as food and beverages, white liquor, and pharmaceuticals, which were all similar at the time.

Although it is not explosive growth, it is a sustainable and controllable growth, with companies like Moutai and Pien Tze Huang being typical examples.

The reason why big white horses are no longer hyped is that most of them have too high valuations, and some have performance issues.

Continuous and stable growth is a good thing, but who can guarantee its sustainability?

Therefore, the main direction of the new round of value investment may still be based on the premise of high growth.

The most promising ones may be the giants with high growth in the sectors that will explode in the future, such as the technology sector.

NVIDIA itself is a benchmark, or a weathervane, for the hype of value stocks in the next decade.

2. Hype logic.

The so-called hype logic is actually about what kind of story is told during the hype.Blue-chip stock speculation, compared to the speculation of thematic stocks, has the biggest difference in the level of capital involved.

Most thematic stocks are played by speculative capital, with small market caps and explosive themes, but ultimately they cannot deliver performance.

The speculation of blue-chip stocks ultimately needs more or less support from performance, so the way of telling stories is different.

The value guidance of this round is about the story of dividends.

The rise of bank stocks in the past two years is also due to high dividends.

No dividends, then ST, it is clear that it is required for listed companies to make cash back to the market.

So, the logic of this round of speculation is very clear, listed companies with the ability to make large dividends, listed companies with higher dividend rates.

As for the pros and cons of traditional blue chips and big white horses, it may ultimately be judged according to the dividend rate of the dividends, which will have more advantages.

3. Speculation funds.

If the market is still biased towards the direction of high dividends, then the speculation funds must be more conservative funds.Just like the first round of speculation on blue-chip stocks, the funds that actually entered were inclined towards the national team.

The main layout at the time was the blue-chip stocks led by the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.

And when it came to the speculation of white-horse stocks in 2020, the main funds that entered were public and private funds.

Among them, public funds were the biggest main force, with hundreds of billions of stock-type public funds entering the market, speculating on how many big white horses.

Nowadays, retail investors have lost trust in public funds, which means that the funds for future speculation will definitely not be public funds.

The national team has increased its holdings in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 at the bottom, but it seems not enough. The main funds for this round of speculation should be more inclined towards social security funds, insurance funds, and other risk-avoiding funds.

The goal of risk-avoiding funds is not a large increase in market value, but a stable cash flow.

And these blue-chip stocks can provide a stable cash flow, with an annual dividend rate of 3-4%, which is very attractive to them.

After all, it is very difficult to find a capital preservation investment channel nowadays that can get a return of 3-4%, and the interest rates for bank loans are almost all below 4%.

4. Speculation space.If the market's hype direction mainly focuses on high dividends, rather than concentrated value growth, or high prosperity,

then the space for this round of hype will not be particularly large.

After all, a dividend rate of 4%, after a 30% increase, will only be 3%.

The repair of blue-chip stocks in 2016-2017, the overall space is not that large either.

In that round of the market, from the low point to the high point, the increase of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is about less than 50%.

But if it is based on high performance growth to hype, three times or five times are completely possible.

After all, high-quality white horse tracks, high prosperity companies, in 1-2 years to double the performance growth, is also completely possible.

The space for hype itself should be matched with the hype style.

Some people must want to ask, in order to pursue the maximization of benefits, which white horse direction should be sought?The discussion previously was merely based on the overall market environment and the larger logic.

In every market cycle, there are always blue-chip stocks that turn into dark horses, and it is normal for them to have gains exceeding ten times.

What the market is currently leading is the performance and the ability to distribute dividends.

So, some growth companies, if they can also meet the dividend distribution and then their performance can still increase significantly, wouldn't they be even more desirable?

The market is definitely not black and white, and there will definitely be differentiation and better opportunities.

Blue-chip stocks that come out of high-growth tracks will always be better than ordinary blue-chip stocks.

After all, these listed companies are developing very quickly, with market value growth efficiency of several billion, tens of billions, or even hundreds of billions.

Growth-oriented blue-chip stocks must be the first priority, especially the outstanding performance of small market value companies.

In addition, using the term "comeback" to describe big blue-chip stocks is not particularly appropriate.

The essence of big blue-chip stocks, in addition to performance issues, is the cycle of capital speculation, or rather, it corresponds to valuation issues.The market is always a cycle of moving from cheap to expensive, and then falling back to cheap again.

This is a cycle, even for value investing, it is the same.

View the market as a place of game, and treat the so-called logic as a story. Listen to the story, understand the story, tell the story to others, and find someone to take over the position.

The stock market, stories, and valuations are all a cycle. Buy when it's cheap and sell when it's expensive, you can't go wrong.