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Many professional investors often refer to a technical indicator when buying and selling stocks: the chip peak.

The chip peak is an important indicator used to judge the cost of chips by counting the trading volume of a stock during a certain period.

However, there is a particularly big problem with the chip peak, which is that it is difficult to distinguish between friends and enemies.

That is, you cannot accurately determine whether so many accumulated chips are from retail investors or the main force.

For example, seeing a lot of chips accumulated at a low position seems to have the signs of the main force absorbing chips.

At this time, it is very likely to form a so-called bottom platform and maintain a fluctuating pattern.

But this does not mean that all the chips have been taken away by the main force, and the stock price will rise.

Once the platform is broken, it is very obvious that the chips were distributed to retail investors on the platform, and the main force has fled.

The chip peak can only represent the concentration of chips, and it is difficult to identify the true relationship between friends and enemies, which is easy to mislead.

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Of course, if the reaction is fast enough, it is possible to effectively judge the trend of the market based on the changes of the chip peak and the profit situation, which has important reference significance and value.In practical combat, the highs and lows of the market, the changes in the chips, and a very useful indicator, the deviation rate.

What is the deviation rate?

In fact, it refers to the deviation of the current price from the average market price, which is called deviation in professional terms.

The deviation rate can effectively determine the extent of changes in chips and prices.

This magical indicator can effectively determine the short-term highs and lows, indicate buying and selling points, and effectively avoid risks.

If the chip distribution peak is the bronze indicator, then the deviation rate is the king indicator.

Today, let's talk about the deviation rate indicator.

The deviation rate indicator is easy to understand. It is the deviation of the current price from the moving average price.

For example, if the current stock price is 11 yuan, and the corresponding 5-day moving average is 10 yuan, then the 5-day deviation rate is 10%.It can be roughly understood that those who bought within these 5 days have made an average profit of about 10%.

Although this statement has significant issues and does not take into account the actual trading volume to deduce, it is simply explained from the perspective of price fluctuation.

The reason for not bringing in the trading volume here is that it is impossible to determine whether the trading volume is a capital turnover or whether the main force is buying or selling.

During the lifting stage, the main force's method is often to pull and retreat at the same time. It is very likely that the price is pulled from 10 yuan to 20 yuan, and the cost of the main force is still around 10 yuan.

Therefore, the design of the deviation rate is not to calculate the specific changes in trading volume, to determine who the trading volume corresponds to the chip peak, and to judge the short-term overbought and oversold simply according to the deviation of the price.

The accuracy of the 5-day line deviation rate is often not enough.

Because a short-term limit rise can easily pull the deviation rate, and it is also difficult to determine whether the chips have appeared an oversold signal.

Usually, the deviation rate of the 20-day line is the most widely used.

20 days, just a month of trading time, that is, the average transaction price of a month, and how much deviation from the current price will be reflected in the deviation rate.

From the perspective of the chips themselves, overbought and oversold mean the rebalance of the long and short positions.First, let's explain overbought.

If a stock has been fluctuating around 10 yuan for a long time, and after a month, the stock price is raised to around 15 yuan.

At this time, the 20-day moving average representing a month may still be more than 11 yuan, but the stock price has already reached 15 yuan.

The deviation rate is the current price divided by the moving average price.

For example, a stock price of 15 yuan and a moving average price of 11.5 yuan, the deviation rate is 30.4%.

It can be simply understood that the current price has a floating profit of 30.4% for the main force.

Even super hot stocks, as long as they are not continuous limit-up stocks, will face the pressure of chip selling at this stage.

After all, retail investors are afraid of heights, and the following high-altitude disk will gradually be exhausted.

The main force is even less likely to take over at a high position, and more likely to want to sell some of the chips.

Therefore, when the deviation rate reaches a peak and the market shows an overbought phenomenon, the willingness to sell will greatly increase, and the short-term high point naturally arises.Translate the following passage into English: All the high points are basically not pre-planned, but where the trend-following orders hit, the stock price is pulled to where.

Anyway, there are people willing to take over at high positions, and the main force is eager to pull it higher.

The larger the stock, the stronger the effectiveness of overbuying, and the lower the deviation rate at the peak.

Because the larger the plate, the more funds, the closer it is to the rules of the transaction itself.

Small plate stocks, because the chips themselves are relatively few, can be more concentrated, can also be more dispersed, the main force is easier to act recklessly.

But the large plate stock is not a player, so many players together, once there is an overbuy, it must be to reduce the position to take the bag first.

The larger the trading volume, the more effective the deviation rate index.

Let's talk about the situation of being oversold.

Many retail investors like to grab the rebound of oversold, what is the situation of oversold?

Oversold refers to the stock price continuously falling, the deviation rate is too large in the short term, and the deviation is too high.For example, when the price is at 10 yuan, many retail investors may think about cutting their losses, as the loss is not too significant.

When it falls to 9 yuan, and then to 8 yuan, they might think about just lying flat and toughing it out, which will lead to more people holding on.

The selling pressure will gradually decrease as the stock price falls more,

When the selling pressure decreases and the low price attracts more and more buying funds, the rebound will naturally come.

An oversold situation forms a short-term bottom, and a violent rebound occurs, which is actually due to a large deviation.

Even if the company's stock price has fallen sharply due to a bombshell, there will still be a rebound to a certain extent.

Many people don't understand, how can a bad company still have people grabbing for chips? This can be a self-rescue, or it can be seen as a release of chips and trading sentiment.

The low point of the deviation will not last very long, after a one-time inflow and outflow of funds, it will slowly be repaired.

To put it bluntly, after the stock price has rebounded from the oversold situation, the price has risen a bit, and the moving average has fallen a bit, it will still go as it should.

The trend itself must be greater than the deviation.The deviation rate itself is an emotional release under a long-term trend, with the transfer of chips.

The points of overbought and oversold trading, using the deviation rate as a reference, can effectively avoid chasing rises and falls, and achieve high selling and low buying.

However, the deviation rate indicator itself cannot effectively change the direction and trend of the stock.

Long-term rising stocks must have a long-term positive deviation rate, constantly fluctuating within a certain range.

If the main force is in place, the fluctuation of the deviation rate will be very narrow, and the stock price will naturally step by step.

Finally, the historical deviation rate, whether it is an individual stock or an index, has a relatively large reference value and is a good measurement standard.